Four Stages of Oil Market Volatility

Oil Price Volatility

Crude oil prices continue their downward movement with the question most asked---when will this end? The answer of course is that commodity prices especially fuels are notoriously volatile. The official OPEC market report for December with data through the end of November described it with precise technical language saying market conditions reflect “reflect bearish global crude oil market fundamentals as abundant supply remains significantly higher than demand.” The answer is that prices will …Continue Reading »

Temperatures are not Rising over Climate Change except at the IPCC Conference in Paris

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SOURCE: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28870988 Prepare yourself for wailing and gnashing of teeth as the UN International Panel on Climate Change advocates meet in Paris. The Telegraph newspaper article in the UK summed up the Panel’s view: “The world is on course to experience “severe and pervasive” negative impacts from climate change unless it takes rapid action to slash its greenhouse gas emissions, a major UN report is expected to warn on Sunday. Flooding, dangerous …Continue Reading »

Lessons from the Gas Pump about Oil Price Volatility

WTI Brent Crude price decline EIA

As I filled the gas tank in my wife’s car this weekend I chuckled about the great low price I was paying for the experience. It made me feel so good I went inside the Chevron service station and bought a lottery ticket and a few scratchers for good measure. This was my lucky day. Later, I asked my wife if she won anything on her scratchers---“Yes! She cheered $10 and a free ticket. Now where are you taking me for dinner.” What does this have to do with oil price volatility? Actually, I bet …Continue Reading »

Big Sale on Oil! Limited Time Only!

WTI Brent Crude price decline EIA

SOURCE: US EIA, Bloomberg, CME Group That’s the real headline from the geopolitical reaction to falling oil prices. In the past falling world oil prices have provoked a meeting of the OPEC oil ministers who would agree to and announce a cartel cut in production targets to bring down supply levels to match demand. Then the ministers would fly home on their private jets and cheat hoping some other OPEC member would take the production cut medicine so they would not get sick. Too often that …Continue Reading »

The Global Energy Game Changer @ Work

USEnergy Boom Infographic McClatchy

The Global Energy Game Changer @ Work The US oil and gas business is booming because of the shale revolution at work, but in many parts of the industry there are growing pains.  The super majors face rising costs for finding and developing new reserves.  The midstream players face infrastructure bottlenecks.  Refineries face a glut of light crude or condensate that does not fit the refining process demand for heavy crude and thus must be pre-processed out.  Even the shale pioneers who struck …Continue Reading »

Shale Gas Supply Growth Shakes Up Everything

EIA World Shale Resources

SOURCE:  US EIA Data and Reuters graphic The shale revolution is a full reversal of energy fortunes in the United States.  It might have similar potential in other parts of the world if as projected global LNG prices decline over the decade ahead and indexing gas prices to oil erodes from competitive pressures on existing oil-indexed LNG suppliers. Large volumes of global gas supplies are expected come to market at prices below oil price parity (assuming oil prices at or above $90/bbl). …Continue Reading »

Light Sweet Crude Displacement

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I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and despite its well-deserved ‘tree hugger’ image the inland part of the Bay is home to a concentration of refineries essential to California’s economic vitality.  These refineries produce the boutique blend of gasoline not available anywhere else.  The EPA’s insistence on these unique regional gasoline blends is one reason fuel prices are higher here in California than elsewhere in the country.  When one of our California refineries burps or has any type …Continue Reading »

The Big Shift in Energy is a Complete Reversal of Fortunes

As we all read the 2012 economic reports last year we collectively thought of the right technical terms---the results sucked!  GDP growth had slowed to 1.5%, unemployment rates remained stubbornly high at 8.2% over average nationwide but the damage to youth, black and Hispanic and those with less than college educations are still horrible.  Clearly we need an economic shot in the arm. How could there possibly be any good news on the horizon? The good news is the big shift in energy is a …Continue Reading »

Lessons from the Front Lines of Disruptive Innovation

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Tech and Creative Labs (TCLABZ) was born out of the disruptive innovation realization that insight about this energy market volatility could be extracted from the online dynamic interaction of people trying to figure out what is going on, what might happen next, and what if I do “X” instead of “Y”? We believe disruptive innovation technologies help us see new opportunities among the volatility and risk in the world around us.  By helping us play better defense in our volatile world, …Continue Reading »

The Big Shift in Energy is Underway

TCLabz O&G Extraction Analytics Platform

The United States is engaged in a fierce debate over energy strategy, policy and production. Today there is wave after wave of new Federal regulation designed to favor clean energy strategies at the expense of fossil fuels that still provide most of our energy resources.  These rules are being promulgated as a consequence of a Supreme Court Decision in EPA vs Massachusetts which held that EPA does have authority to regulated carbon dioxide emissions under the Clean Air Act even though there is …Continue Reading »