About Gary L Hunt

Gary Hunt is a global business executive with 20+ years experience as a “C’ level trusted adviser on corporate strategy, M&A, and recurring revenue business model strategies.

His focus is information technology and energy vertical “sweet spots” where IT and OT converge to offer scalable growth opportunities to leverage data and analytics into advanced predictive analytics solutions using recurring revenue business models.

Vollatility Happens but Collateral Damage Kills You

EIA OPEC net oil exports to fall in 2014 and 2015

  The US Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasts that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member countries not counting Iran will experience oil export revenue 14% lower at year-end 2014 compared to a year ago. That is $700 billion left in the pockets of oil consumers over the last year. If you are a filling your gas tank you are cheering. But this is the worst OPEC performance since 2010 not just because oil prices declined …Continue Reading »

Four Stages of Oil Market Volatility

Oil Price Volatility

Crude oil prices continue their downward movement with the question most asked---when will this end? The answer of course is that commodity prices especially fuels are notoriously volatile. The official OPEC market report for December with data through the end of November described it with precise technical language saying market conditions reflect “reflect bearish global crude oil market fundamentals as abundant supply remains significantly higher than demand.” The answer is that prices will …Continue Reading »

Have the Saudi’s Underestimated the US Oil Industry?

EIA fig_9a  Crude YOY 2012 2013

SOURCE: US EIA The decision by OPEC to hold production targets level caused oil prices to fall another ten dollars per barrel in the aftermath. There has been the expected wailing and gnashing of teeth with talk in the media and elsewhere about how the Saudi’s were taking aim at the US shale revolution. There may even be some measure of truth to it. We understand the Saudi’s and the rest of OPEC mat be irritated at the US for finding a way to escape the bondage of high imported oil …Continue Reading »

I’m Talking to the OPEC Man in the Mirror!

EIA US oil reserves keep rising

OPEC crude oversupply " I'm talking to the man in the mirror.  I'm asking him to change his ways.. . . " That is the Michael Jackson song that keeps replaying in my mind as I read the report from the IEA and OPEC itself, that the cartel and non-OPEC members including the US overproduced OPEC's oil production target of 30 million barrels per day in October 2014 by more than 600,000 barrels/day to 30.6 mb/d. This incremental increase in swing productive capacity is the factor to watch for your …Continue Reading »

The US Skunk at the OPEC Lawn Party!

Spot Prices

SOURCE US EIA The press is full of speculation about the cause of OPEC’s fall in oil prices and the motivation behind Saudi Arabia’s decision to ‘hang tough’ with production quotas unchanged from their 30 bbl/d target. Despite what the Saudi’s have been intimating for weeks, the industry seemed to expect OPEC to blink and cut production at their November 27th meeting. It may have been Thanksgiving in the US but there was little to be thankful for around the OPEC meeting table in …Continue Reading »

Making Sense of OPEC Oil Market Politics

Chatham House OPEC breakeven

SOURCE Chatham House Saudi Arabia has always provided the adult supervision among the 12 OPEC members. The November 27th meeting in Vienna was no different as OPEC refused to cut production targets from the present 30 million barrels a day. But the reality that global oil prices have fallen more than 30% is hitting OPEC members in their wallets making for more tension going into this meeting. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies Kuwait, UAE, Qatar stood their ground saying they wanted to let the …Continue Reading »

TOC Articles in India

A couple recent articles in the India press related to Theory of Constraints.  (Disclaimer: I have been working with Goldratt Consulting, which features in these articles.) Capitalising on the after-market by Chandrashekhar Chaudhari in The Financial Express talks about the TOC approach to replenishment and distribution.  I like the emphasis that the replenishment policies should be defined by their consumption rate.  Recent TOC approaches have divided products into the fast-moving "head," …Continue Reading »

Power to the People!

When the short history of smart grid is written someday, I predict it will include four chapters: Government industrial policy and political correctness Market rationalization of the policy mistakes Customer aggregation, choice and revenge The return to rational energy economic equilibrium In Chapter 1 we will hear all about the first phase of smart grid where the focus was on deployment of smart meters by investor owned utilities. The reasons were simple. The Federal Government was …Continue Reading »

Temperatures are not Rising over Climate Change except at the IPCC Conference in Paris

_77098533_c0180190-global_ocean_currents,_diagram-spl

SOURCE: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28870988 Prepare yourself for wailing and gnashing of teeth as the UN International Panel on Climate Change advocates meet in Paris. The Telegraph newspaper article in the UK summed up the Panel’s view: “The world is on course to experience “severe and pervasive” negative impacts from climate change unless it takes rapid action to slash its greenhouse gas emissions, a major UN report is expected to warn on Sunday. Flooding, dangerous …Continue Reading »

Lessons from the Gas Pump about Oil Price Volatility

WTI Brent Crude price decline EIA

As I filled the gas tank in my wife’s car this weekend I chuckled about the great low price I was paying for the experience. It made me feel so good I went inside the Chevron service station and bought a lottery ticket and a few scratchers for good measure. This was my lucky day. Later, I asked my wife if she won anything on her scratchers---“Yes! She cheered $10 and a free ticket. Now where are you taking me for dinner.” What does this have to do with oil price volatility? Actually, I bet …Continue Reading »